Levante arrive in 19th place with 18 points. That position speaks clearly: there is no more margin for error. Every match now is a final. What I like about this Levante under Luís Castro is that I see structure. Since his arrival, the team looks more compact, more disciplined in their own box, and more direct when they attack. At home, especially, they have grown. The Ciutat de València has started to feel alive again, and in this type of derby, atmosphere plays a huge role.

The numbers also tell a story. Eight points from the last six matches under Castro, facing teams like Sevilla, Real Madrid and Athletic away from home, is not something minor. Even in San Mamés, before the red card to Matturro changed everything, Levante were competing. That is the key word for me: competing. They are not inferior in attitude or intensity. Tactically, they defend in a compact 4-4-2 block and try to attack quickly through Carlos Álvarez, Iván Romero and Etta Eyong, who give them pace and unpredictability in the final third.

Yes, they have important absences. Toljan and Matturro are suspended, Brugué is injured, and there are doubts in midfield. But sometimes in these scenarios, the collective spirit compensates for individual losses. I expect Levante to start strong, pressing high in the first 20 minutes, trying to feed off the crowd and push Valencia into mistakes.

On the other side, Valencia are in a very delicate moment. 17th place with 23 points, two consecutive defeats in the league and elimination from the Copa del Rey. The pressure around Carlos Corberán is real. Away from Mestalla, they have only taken six points all season. That statistic worries me a lot. In these environments, when the crowd is hostile and the game is emotional, you need personality and calm. I am not fully convinced Valencia have shown that consistently this year.

Defensively, they are also limited. The right-back situation is a problem, with Unai Núñez potentially having to adapt. There are several injuries in the back line, and that instability can be exposed by a Levante side that attacks with speed and verticality. Pepelu’s return to the Ciutat adds another emotional layer, and we all remember the tension from the first derby at Mestalla, decided late by Hugo Duro.

I see Levante more comfortable in the scenario this game will offer. They will not need to dominate possession. They will defend compact, close central spaces and wait for transitions. Valencia, meanwhile, may struggle if they are forced to carry the initiative in a nervous atmosphere.

For me, this is a derby where the emotional and tactical context favours Levante. They are at home, they have improved with Castro, and they look more united in adversity. I expect a tight match, intense and possibly low-scoring, but I genuinely believe Levante have everything to at least avoid defeat in this dramatic clash.

莱万特以18分排名第19。这一立场清楚地表明：不再有犯错的余地。现在每场比赛都是决赛。我喜欢Luís卡斯特罗统治下的莱万特是因为我看到了结构。自从他到来后，球队看起来更加紧凑，在自己的禁区内更有纪律，进攻时也更直接。尤其是在国内，他们已经成长起来。瓦伦滕西亚球场又开始有了活力，在这种类型的德比中，气氛起着巨大的作用。

这些数字也说明了一个问题。在卡斯特罗的带领下，在客场面对塞维利亚、皇家马德里和竞技等球队的六场比赛中拿到8分，这可不是一件小事。即使在圣马姆萨斯，在马图罗的红牌改变一切之前，莱万特也在竞争。这是我的关键词：竞争。他们的态度和强度并不差。在战术上，他们以紧凑的4-4-2阵型防守，并试图通过卡洛斯Álvarez， Iván罗梅罗和埃塔·埃永快速进攻，他们在最后三分之一给了他们速度和不可预测性。

是的，他们有重要的缺勤。托尔扬和马图罗停赛，布鲁古埃受伤，中场也有疑问。但有时在这种情况下，集体精神会补偿个人的损失。我希望莱万特能强势开局，在前20分钟打出高压力，试图利用人群，迫使瓦伦西亚犯错。

另一方面，瓦伦西亚正处于一个非常微妙的时刻。以23分排名第17，联赛两连败，国王杯被淘汰。卡洛斯Corberán周围的压力是真实的。在梅斯塔利亚之外，他们整个赛季只拿到了6分。那个统计数字让我很担心。在这种环境下，当人群充满敌意，比赛充满情绪时，你需要个性和冷静。我不完全相信瓦伦西亚今年一直表现出这样的状态。

防守端，他们也很有限。右后卫的位置是个问题，乌奈Núñez可能不得不适应。后防线上有几个伤员，莱万特的快速和垂直进攻会暴露出这种不稳定性。佩佩卢的回归又增添了一层情感，我们都记得梅斯塔利亚第一场德比的紧张气氛，那场德比最后由杜罗决定。

我认为莱万特更适应这个游戏提供的场景。他们不需要控制控球权。它们会防守紧凑的中央空间，等待换防。与此同时，如果瓦伦西亚在紧张的气氛中被迫采取主动，他们可能会挣扎。

对我来说，这是一场情感上和战术上都有利于莱万特的德比。他们在家里，他们在卡斯特罗的带领下进步了，他们在逆境中看起来更加团结。我预计这将是一场激烈的比赛，可能会有低比分，但我真的相信莱万特至少有能力在这场戏剧性的比赛中避免失败。